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An Overview of My Bets for Game Week 13 of the Premier League

  • Writer: Matt Lembeck
    Matt Lembeck
  • Dec 18, 2020
  • 4 min read

In a previous article I explained the basics of sports betting without going into detail about my betting strategy. Unless there are specific promotions or odds boosts for different sports, I prefer to stick to betting on soccer, with a focus on the Premier League. I don’t feel as confident in my knowledge of other sports leagues to make straight up bets; however, odds boosts give me the leeway from a risk reward standpoint to give it a go when the opportunity strikes.


Lately I have been a bit rash and uncalculated in my bets and have been on a bit of a losing streak. I’m not going to try to chase my losses (that’s partially why I’m on a losing streak). Instead, I’m going to get back to my comfort zone and make a few $5 medium odds bets with some high odds $1-3 odds bets sprinkled in for this weekend’s Premier League fixtures.


1. Villa Money Line (ML), Liverpool & Everton >2.5 goals, City vs Sou >1.5 goals. $3 bet @ +565 odds for $19.95 payout.

This first bet is a four event parlay with high odds, however, all of the events have negative individual odds (i.e. each event is individually likely to happen)

Villa are coming off a frustrating draw against a notoriously stubborn Burnley side. Their opponent this weekend (West Brom) just had a change of manager due to their poor start to the season.

Liverpool has been red hot lately despite their injury issues, and their opponent (Crystal Palace) have much more attacking output than in recent years.


Everton vs Arsenal is a very interesting matchup this year. Arsenal have been in abysmal form while Everton just defeated two top 4 opponents in the past two weeks to jump up to 5th place themselves. This event is the one I am worried about the most. I could honestly see this game being a shootout with over 5 goals, but it also has the makings of a dreadful defensive affair depending on how the managers set up. Arsenal cannot afford to keep losing games as they find themselves in 15th place almost ⅓ of the way into the season. While they should view this game as winnable, they may play more cautiously in order to prevent a loss. I am less worried about Everton’s game plan, as their manager Carlo Ancelotti is known for free flowing attacks.


This event is the lowest odds (i.e. most likely) of the bunch @ - 670. Any other year I would bank on a higher total goals count for a city game, but this year they are much more defensively solid and have been struggling for goals. Southampton, conversely, have a potent offense and a leaky defense. I expect some goals, but I’ve been burned by City this year when betting on the over so I’m settling for a conservative >1.5 for this one.



2. Brighton and Newcastle ML - $3 bet @ 334 for $13.01 payout


Brighton’s opponent Sheffield United have been abysmal. That’s really the only reason for this one and I think it’s enough.


Newcastle vs Fulham is more of a toss up, but I like the odds for this parlay and Newcastle is the better team.


3. Kane, Watkins, Werner all score - $2 bet @ + 934 odds for $20.69 payout.


Another high odds bet. Rather unlikely, but I like the matchups for all three of these strikers. If one of my high odds bets hit they will pay for the rest of my bets assuming I lose all of them.



4. Tottenham ML, United Draw - $2 bet @+784 odds for $17.68 payout.


I tend to bet on Tottenham to win every week because I am a Spurs fan but mostly because they are a very good team with a manager who tends to grind out results. This is a tough matchup against Leicester City but a win for Spurs seems likely.


Manchester United have been on a very impressive run of form the past month, but Leeds are coming off the back of a dominating performance beating Newcastle 5-2. I have a feeling this will be a high scoring affair but, ultimately, this game should be close.



5. Manchester City & Liverpool ML - $5 bet @ +121 odds for $11.03 payout.

A mistake that I commonly make is to overlap bets. I am doing so here seeing as I already have bets on both those games, however, total goals and ML bets do not necessarily overlap in a way that means I lose both bets if one does not hit.

Both Liverpool and City are fairly heavy favorites @ -200 and -215 odds respectively.



6. Wolves & Chelsea ML, Chelsea game < 4.5 goals. - $5 bet @ +313 odds for $20.64 payout.


Wolves to beat Burnley @ +115 odds feels a bit ridiculous to me. Burnley have been abysmal up until the past two weeks in which they beat a relatively more abysmal Arsenal and managed to knick a draw against a far superior Aston Villa. Wolves have adapted very well to the loss of their star striker Raul Jimenez. I don’t have many concerns about this result.


West Ham are a solid team for the first time since I started watching the Premier League, and Chelsea are coming off of consecutive losses after a very impressive start to the year. This game screams bounce back game for Chelsea to me.


While I anticipate goals, I feel as though under 4.5 should be likely. I’m not going to bet on a specific result, but if I did it would be 2-1 Chelsea.



For this weekend’s action I have a total of $20 in bets for a potential payout of $103. I accept that my strategy of medium to high odds bets means I may walk away from this weekend having lost $20, however, if I hit more than one bet I profit. I trust my intuition to make it out on top over the long run with this strategy.


 
 
 

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